Serbian Post-Crisis Economic Growth and Development Model 2011-2020 is a result of a joint work of the economists gathered around the publications „Macroeconomic trends and analyses“ published by the Economic Institute in Belgrade, and „Quarterly Monitor“ published by the Foundation for the Advancement of Economics at the Faculty of Economy in Belgrade. The intention of the authors is to emphasize that Serbia in the following decade has to make a thorough U-turn aiming at successful economic growth, since it has run out of all possibilities and presumptions which served as a basis for development in the previous decade. Even before the world’s economic crisis, which has only worsened the situation, especially in the real sector and in the area of employment, Serbia faced two fundamental macroeconomic imbalances. On one hand, too rapid growth of private and public consumption relative to GDP and, on the other hand, too much reliance on the growth non-exchangeable goods in the creation of GDP which increased foreign trade and current payments deficit of the country. Given the over-drying privatization revenues and limited possibilities of further over-borrowing in foreign countries, Serbia has to turn to a new model of economic growth and development, which is proinvestment and export-oriented. The authors think that the projections until 2020 are optimistic, but also realistic and achievable. It is the only way to achieve dynamic economic growth which relies on increasing employment and productivity, which also provides internal and external macroeconomic stability and which opens the space to increase the living standard on the real basis.
Serbian Post Crisis Economic Growth and Development Model 2011-2020 Executive Summary