Macroeconomic Research on Cashless Payments in Serbia

Despite progress made over the past decade, the shadow economy in Serbia remains relatively high compared to the European average. In addition to implementing standard reforms aimed at combating the shadow economy, an effective transition to cashless payment methods can significantly contribute to further reducing the shadow economy and increasing tax revenue collection in Serbia. In this context, the project focuses on four themes:

i) Providing a quantitative assessment of the expected impact of implementing cashless initiatives on the shadow economy, tax revenues, and the sustainability of public finances in Serbia;
ii) Analyzing the impact of the cashless transition on vulnerable groups in Serbia and identifying measures to mitigate any negative effects on them;
iii) Identifying barriers to the development of a cashless economy in Serbia and formulating recommendations for measures and policies that can be implemented in Serbia to further develop cashless payments;
iv) Analyzing the potential contribution of the development of digital currencies and financial innovations to the development of a cashless economy in Serbia. The project is funded through the develoPPP program implemented by the German Agency for International Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The project is an integral part of the National Cashless Payment Initiative (Serbia) – “Better Way,” a project jointly implemented by GIZ and companies Visa and Mastercard in partnership with NALED and the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia.

1 THE IMPACT OF AN INCREASE IN CASHLESS PAYMENTS ON THE SHADOW ECONOMY AND PUBLIC FINANCE IN SERBIA

1a Impact of Cashless Transition on Shadow Economy and Tax Revenue in Serbia:  Update of the Estimations

2 THE IMPACT OF THE TRANSITION TO A CASHLESS ECONOMY ON DISADVANTAGED GROUPS IN SERBIA

3 PROMOTION OF THE TRANSITION TO A CASHLESS ECONOMY: INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND RECOMENDATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICIES IN SERBIA

4 IMPACT OF DIGITAL CURRENCIES AND FINANCIAL INNOVATIONS ON CASHLESS INITIATIVE STRATEGY IN SERBIA

5 ESTIMATION OF THE SIZE AND DYNAMICS OF THE SHADOW ECONOMY IN SERBIA